عنوان	Bayesian estimation of overhead lines failure rate in electrical distribution systems
نوع پژوهش	مقاله چاپ‌شده در مجلات علمی
کلیدواژه‌ها	Components reliability model,Overhead lines failure rate
چکیده	Abstract Extracting a precise data-driven failure rate of electrical distribution components is a very prominent issue in asset management decision-making process, but lack of appropriate data would cause problems. In this paper, in order to overcome the deficiency and non-homogeneity of outage data, a shrinkage estimator is proposed for failure rate estimation of overhead lines, which compromises between individual and pooled failure rate estimations. This method is modeled through Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM). The functionality of HBM is compared with two other Bayesian models using Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and real failure data of 34 electrical distribution feeders in Alborz Power Distribution Company.
پژوهشگران	امین مرادخانی (نفر اول)، محمودرضا حقی فام (نفر دوم)، محسن محمدزاده (نفر سوم)