In the path to a net-zero carbon and energy transition from fossil fuel, the world is facing a dilemma of growing global energy demand and required actions on climate-related risks. While over 80% of the current global energy needs are supplied by fossil fuels, 88% of estimated world greenhouse gas emissions is related to fossil fuels due to combustion, extraction, flaring and venting of associated gas. Furthermore, carbon intensity (CI) of upstream production, defined as Kg CO2e per barrel oil,has increased due to a growing reliance on unconventional and heavy oils and depletion trends in conventional resources, which make the energy sector the most sensitive sector impacted by an acceleration in the transition to green economy. Moreover, there is a huge gap in terms of scale and distribution of planned and ongoing carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) plantsand high CI regions, as most of the fossil fuel dependent countries (FFDCs) are least prepared for the energy transition in terms of exposure (hydrocarbon exports make up for GDP) and resilience (revenues from oil and gas sales not adequately managed) to carbon emissions associated with oil production. Therefore, the role of oil and gas companies on developing strategies for lower carbon technologies and applying decision-making workflows for sustainable resource management is highlighted to smooth the low-carbon transition period. The focus of this work is on carbon resilience calibration and emissions scenario analysis in investment decisions to realize decarbonization goals through balancing short-term actions with long-term energy transition plans. The complex porous media and reservoir fluid properties of a carbonate oil and gas field with high CI and large flaring volumes is studied to analyze carbon footprint (CFP) and carbon risk associated to development and production operations such as drilling new wells, artificial lift systems (ALS) and oilfield-produced water treatments. A cash flow model for a sample CCUS project based on data-driven CI estimates and emission scenario analysis is proposed to promote carbon resilience calibration in decision-making process.
